"Recessions do not kill opportunity. Mindsets do." - Futurist Jim Carroll
The fun thing about recessions is that you can joke about them.
Such as:
Why is it so hard to spot the start of a recession? Because by the time the official data comes out, everyone's already been too broke to buy a newspaper to read about it!
Or:
How do you know when a recession is really over? When the economists stop arguing about whether we were even in one!
Anyways, we're in a recession.
One of the interesting things about being someone who spends a lot of time speaking to leadership teams at corporate events is you get a lot of early-warning signs as to the corporate cutbacks that are underway. And I can tell you this - companies are cutting back, deferring meetings, pulling travel budgets, eliminating marketing dollars, and refusing to approve sending their people to conferences and events. Not only that, but the research I am always doing for various inquiries and opportunities also shows, and the discussions I have with people, show all the other warning signs - projects being postponed, capital budgets being curtailed, strategic planning sessions being canceled.
And everyone has gone into a 'wait-and-see' mode.
Think about the signs you are seeing in the media and elsewhere. It's ugly out there!
1. An Inverted Yield Curve
An inverted yield curve, where short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, has historically been a reliable predictor of recessions. This inversion reflects investor pessimism about the near-term economy. Notably, the spread between the 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields has inverted before every U.S. recession since the 1970s, typically with a lead time of 6 to 24 months. Right now? It's inverted. Bigly.
2. Declining Consumer Spending
Consumer spending, which drives about 70% of GDP, has slowed. People are cutting back on purchases of cars, clothing, and appliances, focusing more on essentials like housing and health care. Wait until you see the next set of numbers.
3. Rising Unemployment Claims
Initial jobless claims have been rising. A sustained increase in these claims is an early warning sign of a weakening labor market, which often precedes a recession.
4. Declining Business Investment
As I said above, businesses are showing signs of reduced confidence, with capital investments being delayed amid tariff uncertainties. No one at this moment is eager to commit to a large-scale factory, facility, or other site. They're waiting for some clarity which will not come.
5. Trade Imbalances and Tariffs
Mounting trade imbalances and high tariffs are contributing to all this economic strain. New tariffs without any sort of clarity or certainty are disrupting global supply chains, leading to increased costs for businesses and consumers. Check out the data coming out of the Ports of Los Angeles and Seattle. Yike!
6. Declining Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence has been collapsing amid inflation concerns and high interest rates. This decline in sentiment becomes cumulative, feeding upon itself, and further slowing economic growth.
7. Stock Market Volatility
The stock market has been wildly volatile, underperforming at one moment, up the next, but with no clear direction other than pessimism. This too accelerates a negative impact on consumer and business confidence.
Add it all up, and it's pretty clear that globally the economy is in a bit of a mess.
That's a lot of bad stuff going on.
This is why right now is the perfect time to ignore it all and move to the next phase.
What's your plan for the other side of this thing? Where will you be in five years? What are you going to do right now to make sure you arrive there in good shape?
Which brings me to Dancing in The Rain again. The interesting thing about getting the book ready for print leads me to read it again (and again) as a part of the editing part.
And I can't help but take some personal inspiration from what I wrote in Chapter 1, to open the book.
I'm inspired by my inspiration, and I'm already moving on!
Read it, and move on with me.
Dancing in the Rain: How Bold Leaders Grow Stronger in Stormy Times
Chapter 1. Release Date July 2025
“The smartest strategy in a downturn? Say no to the narrative!”
Your growth story begins the moment you decide not to take part in someone else’s pessimism.
An economic downturn? Massive economic volatility? A lack of clarity in economic signals that might suggest a recession? Significant industry disruption which is causing havoc?
Is everyone hunkering down, letting negative sentiment drive their decisions?
Just refuse to participate!
In an era of panic, the boldest act is to opt out of the fear. The future does not belong to the cautious — it belongs to the courageous.
Offense Wins When Everyone Plays Defence
Winners do not wait. They create.
Recessions do not kill opportunity. Mindsets do.
Volatility does not hold back the future. A chase for clarity does.
That’s why the smartest strategy is to ‘just say no’ to the narrative. If everyone’s playing defense, the game is yours to win on offense.
The path to growth starts with rejecting the crowd’s caution.
Futurist Jim Carroll plans to open up pre-orders for Dancing in the Rain in the next few days.