"Every single trend is both an existential threat and a transformative opportunity at the same moment in time!" - Futurist Jim Carroll
The buzz is that everyone is going to lose their job.
After all, that's what the media is telling everyone with breathless coverage such as this headline from the Washington Post: "ChatGPT took their jobs. Now they walk dogs and fix air conditioners." The subheading? "Technology used to automate dirty and repetitive jobs. Now, artificial intelligence chatbots are coming after high-paid ones."
This is the topic I took on two days ago when five Chicago area contractor union organizations had me in for a packed session on the impact of AI on the construction industry. Known as MARBA (the Mid-American Regional Bargaining Association), the organizations that participated in bringing me included the Great Lakes Construction Association (GLCA), Midwest Wall & Ceiling Contractors Association, Chicagoland AGC, the Mason Contractors Association of Greater Chicago, and the Underground Contractors Association.
Think about what these folks have been hearing - that AI is going to doom the typical construction worker, and that robots will be doing all the work. It's all a part of the hype and hysteria that surrounds AI, so let's take a look at how I took that topic on during my talk, by going through the slides I shared.
This all came in the 3rd section of my talk, taking on the idea that yes, AI is really big - just, not yet!
I then walked through this issue by sharing some news and magazine articles about automation since, well, the beginning of the time of the arrival of machines and automation!
Such as this one from the 1930s wondering, 'Is man doomed by the machine age?"
Or the fact that in 1961, one publication suggested that by 1971 most unskilled jobs would be gone.
This is all a part of the relentless storyline that unemployment is often blamed on the arrival of new machines.
The debate has raged for a long time - "Does Machine Displace Men In the Long Run?" - next to a headline wondering, "Is the Robot Beginning to Think?"
The impact of all this, of course, is that we will just see so many jobs disappear and unemployment will continually increase.
OMG! We need to wonder if we are doomed by the machine age!
In the context of these slides, I thought I would give the audience of several hundred hard-working folks a reality check - such as this Goldman Sachs report from a year ago on the impact of automation on jobs and careers.
Check out construction and extraction - the impact is, compared to many other industries and careers, pretty minimal over time.
What is that? Because history shows us that the story of automation has always been that the displacement of existing jobs is always offset by the creation of new jobs.
"The good news is that worker displacement from automation has historically been offset by creation of new jobs, and the emergence of new occupations following technological innovations accounts for the vast majority of long-run employment growth. The combination of significant labor cost savings, new job creation, and higher productivity for non-displaced workers raises the possibility of a productivity boom that raises economic growth substantially, although the timing of such a boom is hard to predict."
Goldman Sachs, Global Economics Analyst: The Potentially Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth, 26 March 2023
My conclusion for the audience? Yes, AI is going to have a big impact, but it's more about the idea of working smarter - not harder. The key issue? People might not lose their jobs to an AI, but they might lose their jobs to someone more effective at learning how to use AI as an effective tool that enhances their capabilities!
In that way, AI is both an existential threat, as well as an amazing opportunity. Both things can be true at once!
What was the reaction? Pretty good!
The key issue? AI is here to enhance jobs, not necessarily eliminate them:
Futurist, trends & innovation expert Jim Carroll gave attendees of the Great Lakes Construction Association's presentation - Effects of Al on the Union Construction Industry, an understanding on how Al may impact the Union construction industry. Without a doubt, the Al community is here to build our future, the problem Carroll said, is no one is quite sure how. Al is bringing rapid specialization to every industry and will allow us to learn how to learn again, by giving us tools to enhance our jobs.
Overall, I think I was successful in my mission!
Look, I'm not trying to sugarcoat the future impact of AI here - after this section, I took them through insight on how large language model technologies could help them work smarter; an overview of the fascinating new software tools coming their way; and the dramatic impact that the arrival of construction robots and the arrival of 'smart machines' will have on the way they work.
A few posts from now, I'll take a look at these sections from the talk - and will take on such topics as the recent US East Coast port workers strike, a lot of which has to do with the arrival of automation.
There is no doubt that AI is having and will continue to have a huge impact - we just need to make sure the story has context!
Futurist Jim Carroll has been covering the decades-long issue of the impact of automation for, well, decades.