"An irrational belief in irrational ideas usually leads to irrational results" - Futurist Jim Carroll
So let's try and figure out what's going on.
I took today's quote, fed it to ChatGPT, and got the picture above which I used for today;'s 'inspiration' image. Of course, a few months ago, I asked for an image related to 'economic chaos and government' and got this image back. Maybe AI knows something we don't know.
I digress.
Look, in the last little while, I've looked into the Science of Stupidity, the Science of Mistakes, and The Science of Regret. So why not the Science of Irrational Decisions, which I learned is often referred to as "cognitive distortions." There's a lot to be found online to explain where we are. Charts and stuff that explain the many different types of irrational decisions aka cognitive distortions.
There's even a course or two to take on it.
It's a fascinating topic, and as expected, there's a lot of research to be found. It's a wonderful rabbit hole to plunge into because you will find such papers as Overcoming Cognitive Distortions; How to Recognize and Challenge the Thinking Traps that Make You Miserable.
That tracks. People seem to be pretty miserable right now because of the cognitive distortions they've gone through that got us to where we are today.
And, as might expected, there is to be a leadership / personal growth book about it, with the title Predictably IrrationalL: The Hidden Forces that Shape our Decisions, released back in 2008. It probably could use an update!
So let's dig in, shall we? Let's talk about why folks make poor choices about big economic and political issues that end up hurting everyone.
Here's what the science tells us. When people vote against their economic interests or support harmful policies, it's rarely because they're stupid. Their brains just don't always work in their best interest when dealing with complex global systems. Why is that? Our brains take shortcuts. We use mental rules of thumb that help us make quick decisions. This works fine for everyday choices but fails miserably when considering trade policy, inflation control, voting, or healthcare systems.
What happens to people in this circumstance? They get emotional about political and economic issues. Fear, anger, and tribalism cloud their judgment. When someone supports tariffs that will ultimately hurt local businesses because they sound "tough on foreign competition" - that's emotional reasoning drowning out economic reality. It's cognitive dissonance, plain and simple.
The kicker is that the condition leads to great uncertainty, which fuels itself creating more uncertainty in a vicious spiral.
Irrational decisions come about people most people hate uncertainty. Global economic questions involve countless variables and unknowns, and that complexity is so uncomfortable that many will choose simplistic, harmful solutions rather than embrace nuanced approaches. The result is that they stick with failed economic ideologies for far too long. Once committed to a political or economic belief system, many hate to admit it might be flawed (it's referred to as the "sunk cost bias"). So they double down on failed policies.
The research also tells us that many expect the economy to be fair. This "fallacy of fairness" influences voting patterns and policy preferences. People think if a nation works hard, it should automatically prosper - but global markets don't operate on fairness. The result is that people believe they can control forces beyond anyone's reach, but it never works out that way. It's like thinking one leader can single-handedly fix inflation, believing a country can isolate itself from global economic trends through sheer willpower, or blaming the predecessor for everything that is now going wrong.
The bottom line? Quick, gut-reaction thinking is terrible for understanding complex economic systems. People need to slow down and engage their analytical thinking when making decisions that affect millions of lives. And in the age of social media, that simply doesn't work.
'Meaning connectivity makes cognitive dissonance even more widespread, happening faster.
So how can people overcome irrational thinking about politics and economics?
When people start recognizing their flawed reasoning about complex issues like global trade or tax policy, they can change their thinking patterns.
Here's how real improvement happens: First and foremost, some people can learn to notice their blind spots. Someone might realize they automatically dismiss economic data that contradicts their political tribe's position. Just recognizing this pattern is the first critical step. They can identify specific thought distortions. A person might catch themselves catastrophizing ("If this candidate wins, the entire economy will collapse") or black-and-white thinking ("Either we have zero regulations or total government control"). Naming these patterns helps disarm them. Some can learn to challenge their assumptions. Instead of blindly accepting talking points, they might ask: "What evidence supports this economic theory? What would prove it wrong? Am I ignoring important facts?"
Some smart folks deliberately seek opposing views. Rather than consuming media that reinforces existing beliefs about economic issues, they might read perspectives from different political and economic philosophers. They can engage their slower, analytical thinking. When making voting decisions or forming opinions on economic policy, they take time to research and reflect rather than reacting with gut instincts.
People can also learn from policy failures. Instead of doubling down when their preferred economic approach doesn't deliver as promised, they adjust their understanding based on real-world outcomes. This might involve what is called "self-monitoring" - people catching themselves when falling into tribal thinking about complex economic issues and pausing to reconsider.
So here we are - breaking free from irrational thinking about big economic and political issues isn't easy, but it's possible. The first step is recognizing that everyone—regardless of education or political affiliation—is vulnerable to these thinking traps.
Ok, so what happens when people DON'T overcome irrational thinking?
Here's where it gets bad. Really bad. The damage can spread far beyond just having the "wrong opinion."
When people cling to irrational beliefs about economic systems or political ideologies, their worldviews will darken considerably. They might fall into depression or anxiety as they perceive the economy or society as constantly threatening or doomed. Their emotional state deteriorates. Someone obsessively following partisan economic doom-mongering might experience genuine distress, anger, and fear about financial collapse that never materializes. These emotions are real, even when triggered by distorted thinking.
The result is that decision-making about important civic matters becomes consistently poor. Voters might support policies that economists across the spectrum warn against, or reject beneficial programs simply because they come from the "wrong" political party. Relationships strain and break. Family dinners turn into battlegrounds when someone can't discuss economic policy without demonizing those who disagree. Political divisions increasingly separate friends and even split families. People miss opportunities to participate constructively. "What's the point of voting?" thinking or "All politicians are corrupt" generalizations lead to withdrawal from civic life, which only makes governance worse.
Sadly, denialism becomes ingrained. When someone repeatedly rejects economic data or scientific consensus that challenges their worldview, this rejection becomes automatic. Eventually, they dismiss any contrary evidence without consideration. A sense of powerlessness grows. Despite rage-posting online or attending protests, people who can't think rationally about complex systems often end up feeling that shadowy forces control everything, leaving them helpless and bitter. Conspiracy theories flourish.
We are here right now.
When people can't recognize and challenge their distorted thinking about politics and economics, they don't just make bad voting decisions. They often experience genuine suffering and contribute to dysfunction in democratic systems. The real tragedy is that they remain trapped in thought patterns that could be changed with effort and awareness.
What have I learned?
It's complex, folks, and there is no easy way out.
Buckle up.
Futurist Jim Carroll has never understood why people make irrational decisions that end up causing them damage. He’ll never understand how they can make the same decision twice.