"Science always has the last word!" - Futurist Jim Carrol
My wife is a much smarter person than I am, always suggesting that I should stay away from some of the controversial topics of the day.
But I'm not very smart. As a futurist, it's my job to connect the dots. I just draw lines between various interconnected trends. So here goes, with a few of the items of interest that caught my attention, all in the context of the recent news,. I seem to be connecting a lot of dots and link a lot of lines.
At the end, I'll share a post I wrote in 2017 about what I call the Healthcare Reality Crisis.
Draw your conclusions.
Here goes.
The first is an article in The Atlantic that gives a practical, science-oriented overview of what happens when the eradicated diseases of our time - polio, measles, whooping cough - come back to society. It's a sobering read and a brutal reality.
The second is a screenshot that I grabbed of some science-based stuff from the New York Times one day.
The third is a screenshot of another article that just crossed my desk.
The article is based on a scientific study out of Norway.
To summarize things:
- for a significant period, humans were becoming smarter, with IQ scores increasing by about three points per decade. This trend is known as the Flynn effect.
- however, this study from Norway found that average IQ scores are now decreasing, with a loss of approximately seven IQ points per generation.
- if this downward trend continues, it is predicted that in about ten generations, the number of individuals with IQ scores in the “Very Superior” range (>130) will significantly decrease
The fifth item is a screenshot of a few news articles about the impact of digital media, perhaps related to this trend.
With that, I bring you a post that I wrote in 2017 - about what I called The Emerging Healthcare Reality Crisis. The funny thing is, this predictive post turned out to be eerily correct.
Look, all I'm doing is connecting the dots.
Because most of us know that in the long run, science always wins.
Trend: The Emerging Healthcare Reality Crisis
by Futurist Jim Carroll, October 2017
[ link ]
Much of my work as a futurist is based on science, facts, research, stuff that really isn't up for debate.
So it was really quite sad yesterday to read the New York Times article yesterday, How the Anti-Vaxxers are Winning.
Clearly there are vast sections of the population today who do not believe in science. They don't believe in facts. They don't believe in much other than what they want to believe in.
Their belief system will increasingly drive their attitude and understanding of their healthcare circumstances.
Going forward, this new reality will prove to be a tremendous challenge for the healthcare system.
Essentially, lots of people are going to succumb to lifestyle disease -- diabetes, heart disease, obesity-related illness. They will refuse to accept the science-based fact that what they eat, how they live, and what they do (or don't do) are directly responsible for their condition.
They will be fed information that will lead them to believe that it is not their fault. They will choose to read information that absolves them of blame. The healthcare system will not have the funding, resources or money to deal with them.
Many will die an early death.
I try to be an optimistic futurist all the time, but on this issue, I am not, and I think the healthcare system needs to do some thinking on this issue.
The World Economic Forum posits that the global economic impact of the five leading chronic diseases — cancer, diabetes, mental illness, heart disease, and respiratory disease — could reach $47 trillion over the next 20 years. Clearly, the world needs some big bold initiatives. Sadly, for many, there will be little appetite for the same.
Some basic maps put things in perspective, offered without commentary:
Futurist Jim Carroll draws connections and links dots. He’s usually right.