"Sometimes you need not be right - you just need to be bold!" - Futurist Jim Carroll
Welcome to 2025!
Back in 2014, I wrote a series of predictions about 2025 - in a document titled, of all things, '25 Trends for 2025'. (Intuitive!) At the time I wrote it, most of the news media were busy, as they are every year, contacting futurists, trend forecasters, and guys like me to bang together their year-end articles about "what comes next?
With the post, I wrote:
The reality about the future is this: a lot can happen in 10 years, and much of it can be positive. Can you imagine how different the future might be ten years from now, in the year 2025? What will the world be like? How different will things be? What will be the big trends that will cause economic, political, social and global upheaval? What trends will reshape the world of business?
When I put together this particular trends document in 2014, it was a rather hurried affair and reflected much of what I was talking about at various events throughout the year earlier. As a result, it wasn't something very comprehensive - it was just a grab bag of stuff. And my goal wasn't just to predict the future - it was to demonstrate how we should think about it. It goes right to the heart of the observation by Bill Gates: "People tend to overestimate what will happen in two years and underestimate what will happen in ten."
The real value in futurism isn't about getting predictions exactly right - it's about taking on the idea of simply trying to predict them because it gets you thinking about things. In that vein: you need not always be right - you just need to be bold - when thinking about tomorrow!
Even so, I thought it might be fun to go back, take a look at each prediction, and then see how I did. I enlisted Claude.AI to help me in this process and asked it to give me a grade for each prediction.
"I am going to paste a series of 25 Predictions for 2025 made by Futurist Jim Carroll. He wrote these predictions in 2014. Now that we are actually in 2025, I need two things. First, a grade of the accuracy of the prediction on this scale a) Correct b) Somewhat correct c) Didnt't happen d) Ridiculous prediction. Second, I need some insight on the basis for each prediction, with statistics or other relevant factual information."
With that in mind, here goes! The original prediction, the grade, and the analysis.
#1 - Cash will have all but disappeared. We already have a generation that has been weaned on PayPal, online transactions, and the Web. With the arrival of ApplePay and other initiatives that transform mobile devices into credit cards, the trend toward the decline of the use of cash will only accelerate. We'll see the trend pick up speed as we drop payment technology into our cars, bicycles, clothing, and everything else around us (as part of the trend involving "the Internet of Things.") It's clear that by 2025 if cash is not pretty well gone, it's clearly well on its way out.
Claude.AI: Cash Disappearance. Grade: Somewhat Correct Analysis: While cash hasn't completely disappeared, digital payments have indeed become dominant. As of 2023, 46% of global payments were digital, with countries like Sweden reaching 90% cashless transactions. The rise of digital wallets, contactless payments, and cryptocurrencies has significantly reduced cash usage, though complete elimination hasn't occurred.
The future?
- 2030: Highly Likely (80%)
- Digital payments will dominate developed economies
- Cash still important in developing regions and informal economies
- 2035: Very Highly Likely (90%)
- Most global transactions digital
- Cash mainly ceremonial or emergency backup
#2 - Africa will have ceased to be a rural continent. Worldwide, there is a massive migration of urban populations to cities; the majority of the world's population will live in less than 30 mega-cities by 2025. With that trend comes fascinating challenges with water, waste treatment, energy, and other infrastructure. We can expect accelerating R&D in each of these fields as global society steps up to the challenge presented by 'hyper-urbanization,' and the birth of entire new lines of business involving "mega-city infrastructure support services."
Claude.AI: African Urbanization. Grade: Somewhat Correct. Analysis: Africa has experienced rapid urbanization, though not complete rural elimination. By 2023, about 43% of Sub-Saharan Africa's population lived in urban areas, up from 32% in 2014. While the trend is significant, the prediction of a complete rural exodus was overstated.
- 2030: Likely (70%)
- Continued rapid urbanization but not complete transformation
- Major challenges with infrastructure and resources
- 2035: Highly Likely (85%)
- Majority urban population
- Several new megacities established
#3 - Much of the world has 'gone up.' One consequence of mass urbanization is that you only have so much space to place people and the infrastructure that goes with it. Two solutions: dig down, or build up. We'll see more of the latter as various groups figure out how to capitalize on new, innovative thinking with 'skyscraper' technology. For example, we're already seeing rapid advances in both the concept and practice of vertical farming -- and we will see the emergence of a new profession of people known as 'vertical farming infrastructure managers.' Big, tall buildings involving innovative new ideas will be one of the business growth stories in the years before 2025.
Claude.AI: Vertical Development ("Going Up"). Grade: Correct. Analysis: Vertical farming and skyscraper development have indeed accelerated. By 2023, the global vertical farming market will reach $4.2 billion, with projections to reach $15.7 billion by 2025. Major cities like Singapore have pioneered vertical farming initiatives, and skyscraper construction has continued to break records.
- 2030: Very Likely (85%)
- Vertical farming commercially viable in major cities
- Space constraints driving upward development
- 2035: Nearly Certain (95%)
- Standard practice in most major urban areas
- Integration of agriculture into urban architecture
#4 - We'll see the first human live to the age of 150. Rapid advances in medical science, the impact of lifestyle changes, and new forms of a "super-health" diet will lead to a global celebration of the birthday of the first human to live to the age of 150. Yet at the same time, society will be grappling with a fascinating new dichotomy. There will be a growing sector of the population living into their 120s and 130s -- yet at the same time, we see an increasing decline in life expectancy in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Why? By 2015, the sale of statin (cholesterol-lowering drugs) was already on an upswing in India as the countries succumbed to the diet and sedentary lifestyle of Western society.
Claude.AI: 150-Year Life Expectancy. Grade: Didn't Happen. Analysis: While longevity has improved, we haven't reached 150 years. The longest verified human lifespan remains 122 years (Jeanne Calment). The current maximum life expectancy is around 85-90 years in developed nations.
- 2030: Very Unlikely (< 5%)
- Advanced gene therapy treatments
- Better understanding of cellular aging mechanisms
- Improved targeted cancer treatments
- 2035: Unlikely (10-15%)
- CRISPR gene editing applications for longevity
- Stem cell therapies for organ regeneration
#5 - A constant stream of bio-connectivity data drives healthcare decisions. By 2025, most people in the developed world will have 3 or 4 bio-connectivity medical devices linked to them on a 24/7 basis. Some will be small, intrusive chips buried under the skin that constantly monitor medical vital signs such as blood pressure, glucose levels, temperature, oxygenation level, and heartbeat. This data will be beamed and streamed continuously to a massive, anonymous healthcare grid that will constantly analyze the data for patterns, variances, and trends. Such data will routinely help the medical industry discover the outbreak of disease and flu, and predict the emergence of potentially, previously unidentified global or regional health risks. Worldwide, new medical infrastructure will have emerged that will guide political decisions on the best spending patterns to ensure overall societal health in an era of ever-more-scare healthcare support dollars.
Claude.AI: Bio-connectivity Medical Devices. Grade: Correct. Analysis: Wearable health technology has exploded. The global medical wearable market reached $21.3 billion in 2023, with devices monitoring everything from heart rate to glucose levels. Apple Watch, Fitbit, and other devices have mainstreamed continuous health monitoring.
- 2030: Likely (75%)
- Widespread adoption of basic health monitoring
- Privacy and security concerns still significant
- 2035: Very Likely (90%)
- Advanced biosensors common
- Integration with preventive healthcare systems
#6 - The fastest-growing profession involves people known as 'personal health concierges.' At the same time that the bio-connectivity data flood is fed into the health grid, it will be sent to the personal health coach - or concierge -- of individual patients. The concierge -- who more than likely will have in-depth medical knowledge, generated on a just-in-time basis, will be located in one of the new, Asian/African mega-cities. They'll work with the patient's traditional family doctor to help guide the patient through both routine and complex healthcare decisions, activities, and motivations.
Claude.AI: Personal Health Concierges. Grade: Somewhat Correct. Analysis: While not exactly as described, telehealth and personal health coaching have grown significantly. The global telehealth market reached $144.2 billion in 2023. AI-powered health assistants and remote health monitoring services have become common.
- 2030: Moderately Likely (60%)
- AI-assisted health coaching widespread
- Human element still crucial
- 2035: Likely (80%)
- Hybrid AI-human health management standard
- Personalized medicine norm
#7 - Plants will 'talk' to us. And by doing so, they will help to continue to drive a furious rate of innovation in the agricultural sector. Through the same type of small-chip technology embedded in humans, plants will be able to analyze themselves and "report in" if they need a nitrogen boost or a drink of water. Farmers will have instant, predictive analytical dashboards that allow them to continually monitor the health, growth rate, and maturity of massive areas of cropland with a single view. At the same time, most cattle and other farm animals will have their Internet address, and also be part of a large connected monitoring grid.
Claude.AI: Smart Agriculture ("Plants Talking") .Grade: Correct. Analysis: Precision agriculture using IoT sensors has become widespread. The smart agriculture market reached $15.4 billion in 2023, with sensors monitoring soil moisture, nutrient levels, and crop health in real time.
- 2030: Very Likely (85%)
- IoT in farming mainstream
- Precision agriculture standard
- 2035: Nearly Certain (95%)
- Full integration of AI and robotics
- Automated farming systems common
#8 - The concept of TV as a 'physical device' has disappeared. By 2025, it will seem to be a quaint idea that many of us have physical devices known as 'televisions' - we might see a few in museums. Instead, most of us will carry around a variety of small 'beaming' technologies, embedded in our watches, mobile devices, glasses, car dashboards, clothing, and just about everywhere else. The technology will let us instantly place a high-definition video and audio stream anywhere, at any time, on demand. YouTube, by this point, was a video delivery system that was something from the "olden days."
Claude.AI: TV as Physical Device Disappearing. Grade: Somewhat Correct. Analysis: While traditional TVs haven't disappeared, streaming and multi-device viewing have become dominant. By 2023, streaming accounted for over 50% of TV viewing time, with multiple devices serving as viewing platforms.
- 2030: Likely (70%)
- Mixed reality becoming standard
- Traditional TV still exists but declining
- 2035: Very Likely (85%)
- Immersive media dominant
- Traditional formats niche
#9 - Micro nationals dominate global markets. The most successful, disruptive business organizations will consist of a small nucleus of people, focused on goals, ideas, innovation, and strategy. They'll instantly decide to enter a new market, engineer a new product, or transform a concept into a radical new business model. They'll do so by having mastered the skill of going out and assembling the right skills at the right time, for the right purpose, at the most optimal cost. They will have obliterated the slumbering, slow-moving multinational organizational structure that seemed to serve its purpose so well up to the early part of the 21st century.
Claude.AI: Micro Nationals Dominating Markets. Grade: Somewhat Correct. Analysis: While not dominating, smaller, agile companies have indeed disrupted traditional markets. Companies like Stripe, Discord, and Notion have achieved significant success with relatively small core teams.
- 2030: Moderately Likely (65%)
- More flexible corporate structures
- Traditional companies still dominant
- 2035: Likely (75%)
- Network organizations common
- Project-based business models standard
#10 - Re-generative energy technology is everywhere; it's transformative, storable, reusable. Most energy use is no longer based on a 'one-time' use; instead, most of the energy consumption in the world comes from re-generative devices. We will have seen a gradual but steady decline in the use of carbon and other energy sources (in which the energy source can only be used once, and then disappears.). There will be lots of bicycles with hydraulics that store energy while going downhill; homes that create energy from static generated from people walking on a new type of intelligent floor covering; lights that use special reflectors to re-send the beam back to an in-bulb mirror that makes just a little bit more energy. Every photon counts!
Claude.AI: Regenerative Energy Technology. Grade: Somewhat Correct. Analysis: Renewable energy has grown significantly, though regenerative technology isn't "everywhere." Renewable energy sources accounted for 29% of global electricity generation in 2023, with significant growth in energy storage solutions.
- 2030: Likely (70%)
- Significant renewable adoption
- Storage technology mature
- 2035: Very Likely (85%)
- Majority renewable energy
- Advanced energy recovery systems
#11 - Poll democracy takes flight. The mobile generation, weaned on the technology of text messaging and social networks, finally convinces a few brave countries to consider the idea of real-time citizen voting. Wary at first, these brave new democratic pioneers will discover that this new form of massively participatory democracy changes everything -- in terms not only of the ideas that are proposed to solve some of the biggest challenges faced by the country but also of accelerating the speed by which solutions are accepted and implemented. Other countries begin to jump on board, eager to explore this fast-changing world of 'big ideas and big concepts with big momentum.'
Claude.AI: Poll-Democracy Taking Flight. Grade: Somewhat Correct. Analysis: While direct digital democracy hasn't fully materialized, digital civic engagement has increased significantly. Estonia has pioneered digital voting, and many countries now use digital platforms for civic participation. However, security concerns have limited the widespread adoption of real-time citizen voting.
- 2030: Unlikely (30%)
- Limited experiments in some regions
- Security concerns dominant
- 2035: Moderately Likely (50%)
- Hybrid systems emerging
- Traditional voting still primary
#12 - Paper is something 'from the olden days'. It disappeared in about 2019, in most traditional forms, as most media organizations gave up on the idea of a business model from the 20th century that was ecologically unsound, physically impracticable, and ridiculously expensive. The one bright spot? Getting a paper book via a drone from Amazon became boring. The other bright spot? Opportunities for other paper use within intelligent packaging, hygiene markets, 3D printing, and other opportunities grew over time.
Claude.AI: Disappearance of Paper. Grade: Didn't Happen. Analysis: While digital transformation has reduced paper usage, paper hasn't disappeared. Global paper consumption decreased by about 20% between 2014-2023, but certain sectors like packaging have grown. The prediction about paper books becoming boring via drone delivery was particularly off-mark.
- 2030: Moderately Likely (55%)
- Significant reduction but not elimination
- Specialized uses remain
- 2035: Likely (75%)
- Digital dominant in most areas
- Paper for specialty applications
#13 - Grown up! The first 12-generation family is part of Earth society. In 2015, the number of generations that were alive in a single family was seven. But in 2025, due to longevity, advances in health care, and lifestyle changes, society saw the first great-great-great-greet-great-great-great-great-great-grandparent. Try and do the math. It will boggle your mind. Try and make a little kid say it, and new words like "grandmaseven" were invented.
Claude.AI: 12-Generation Family. Grade: Ridiculous Prediction. Analysis: This prediction was mathematically implausible. The current record for most living generations in one family remains at 7 generations, set in 1989. Given current life expectancy trends, a 12-generation family would require multiple generations of extremely young parenthood.
- 2030: Likely (70%)
- Hybrid peer review systems common
- Traditional systems still important
- 2035: Very Likely (85%)
- Distributed research networks standard
- AI-assisted peer review
#14 - Crowd thinking has replaced most forms of peer research. Most long-established medical and science journals have transitioned - big time -- accepting a new form of instant crowd thinking as the best way to evaluate the new world of hyper-science. In an instant, a researcher can summon a crowd of vetted, quality specialists who have niche knowledge in a rapidly changing field. The result? A further acceleration of knowledge and the pace of the discovery of new ideas and concepts. The impact? Massive velocity in the development of new technologies, pharmaceuticals, medical devices and forms of treatment, agricultural concepts, and methodologies -- every industry and profession has seen a profound shift bigger than the once amazing macro-knowledge burst of the Manhattan Project.
Claude.AI: Crowd Thinking Replacing Peer Research. Grade: Somewhat Correct. Analysis: While traditional peer review remains important, crowdsourced research and open science have grown significantly. Platforms like ResearchGate and preprint servers like arXiv have transformed scientific collaboration. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this trend with the rapid sharing of research findings.
- 2030: Very Likely (80%)
- Personalized medicine mainstream
- Gene therapy advances
- 2035: Nearly Certain (95%)
- Standard medical practice
- Preventive genetic intervention common
#15 - Regenerative DNA farms will abound. Many people will have registered their DNA with a variety of medical companies that will guarantee to provide a personalized body implant on demand. Knee replacements are made of bio-tissue that is based on your DNA. Hip replacements customized to your particular weight and balance profile -- based on information from last week. By 2025, some 30% of the typical body mass was artificially grown....
Claude.AI: Regenerative DNA Farms. Grade: Somewhat Correct. Analysis: While not exactly as described, bioprinting and personalized medicine have advanced significantly. The global 3D bioprinting market reached $1.9 billion in 2023, with the successful printing of tissues and simple organs. However, complex organ printing remains challenging.
- 2030: Very Likely (80%)
- Personalized medicine mainstream
- Gene therapy advances
- 2035: Nearly Certain (95%)
- Standard medical practice
- Preventive genetic intervention common
#16 - The package is the product. In 2025, food consumption was an entirely different thing because the packaging participated with you in the process! Packaging had long ago become intelligent but is now integrated with tiny bio-sensors within food, pharmaceutical products, or drinks. You instantly know about your consumption, calories, and digestion rate...
Claude.AI: Intelligent Packaging Grade: Correct Analysis: Smart packaging has indeed become widespread. The intelligent packaging market reached $27.4 billion in 2023, with features like freshness indicators, temperature monitoring, and NFC connectivity becoming common in food and pharmaceutical packaging.
- 2030: Likely (75%)
- Interactive packaging common
- Limited biosensor integration
- 2035: Very Likely (90%)
- Full integration with health systems
- Real-time monitoring standard
#17 - What we did for heart health in the 20th century, we did for brain health in 2025. Cholesterol, heart disease, and blood pressure became phrases from a bygone era as global scientists attacked the challenge of an aging population. Alzheimer's, dementia, muscle shutdown, and other diseases that come with an aging brain took over the agenda. The global health community threw themselves at the challenge and came up with numerous innovative ideas involving therapy, gene-specific drugs, exercise, and other methods of achieving one of the greatest health transformations of the early 21st century.
Claude.AI: Brain Health Revolution. Grade: Somewhat Correct. Analysis: While we haven't solved major brain diseases, neuroscience has advanced significantly. Brain-computer interfaces, new Alzheimer's treatments, and a better understanding of neuroplasticity have emerged. Companies like Neuralink have pushed boundaries in brain-technology interfaces.
- 2030: Moderately Likely (60%)
- Significant advances in treatment
- Limited prevention options
- 2035: Likely (80%)
- Preventive neuroscience standard
- Early intervention common
#18 - Most industries have gone upside down. Entire industries were flipped on their back by some pretty big trends. Genomic, or DNA-based medicine, led us into a world in which we could more easily understand what health conditions we were susceptible to or at risk for throughout our life. It moved us from a world in which we fix you after you are sick — to one in which we know what you are likely to become sick with and come up with a course of action before things go wrong. Similarly, most industries "went upside down."
Claude.AI: Industries "Going Upside Down" Grade: Correct. Analysis: Preventive medicine and predictive analytics have indeed transformed many industries. The global predictive analytics market reached $10.5 billion in 2023. Industries from healthcare to manufacturing now focus on prevention rather than reaction.
- 2030: Very Likely (85%)
- Digital transformation complete
- New business models dominant
- 2035: Nearly Certain (95%)
- Complete restructuring of many industries
- AI-driven optimization standard
#19 - The concept of an education degree has come to an end; "just-in-time knowledge factories" dominate the educational landscape. University degrees disappeared; tenure was out the window. The concept of a resume was gone; you simply beamed your knowledge-genome to interested skills partners. The rule of the economy became just-in-time knowledge: it was your ability to get the right knowledge, at the right time, for the right purpose, that accelerated you into opportunity.
Claude.AI: End of Traditional Education Degrees. Grade: Didn't Happen. Analysis: While alternative education models have grown, traditional degrees remain important. However, micro-credentials, boot camps, and continuous learning platforms have gained significant traction. The online education market reached $350 billion in 2023.
- 2030: Likely (70%)
- Hybrid learning models standard
- Traditional credentials still important
- 2035: Very Likely (85%)
- Continuous learning platforms dominant
- Skill-based credentials standard
#20 - The electrical grid of the early 21st century is gone; micro-grids dominate energy supply and use. The Napster and PirateBay generation grew up, bought homes, installed backyard solar and wind -- and figured out how to share the new magic they had in their neighborhood. They built new, small, technologically driven backyard microgrids, sharing their energy and insight, and gradually worked away from their connection to their local utility. Consumers were in control, and nothing would ever be the same.
Claude.AI: Micro-Grid Domination. Grade: Somewhat Correct. Analysis: Microgrids have grown but haven't dominated. The global microgrid market reached $28.6 billion in 2023, with significant growth in renewable energy integration. However, traditional grids still serve most power needs.
- 2030: Likely (75%)
- Significant adoption in developed areas
- Integration challenges remain
- 2035: Very Likely (90%)
- Standard in most regions
- Advanced energy-sharing networks
#21 - Sub-Saharan Africa emerged as the world's new China. Water was the big potential problem of the 21st century, and science attacked the challenge with a vengeance. The result? Fast-paced advancements with water-osmosis, de-salinization, and micr0-weather control led to the opportunity to bring a once desolate area back into opportunity. Efforts by the global community to educate, enhance, and enlighten a transient population saw an economic miracle that made the transition of Vietnam -- from the Saigon of 1972 to the world's factory of 2015 -- pale in comparison.
Claude.AI: Sub-Saharan Africa as "New China" Grade: Didn't Happen. Analysis: While Africa has seen economic growth, it hasn't replaced China's manufacturing dominance. However, countries like Ethiopia and Kenya have emerged as growing manufacturing hubs, with significant technology adoption and urbanization.
- 030: Moderately Likely (55%)
- Significant growth in select regions
- Infrastructure challenges remain
- 2035: Likely (70%)
- Major economic centers established
- Continued development challenges
#22 - Light has been stopped in its tracks. Within the confines of an innovative new network router technology, light has been slowed down from approximately 186,000 miles per second to - literally nothing. Zero. 0. Dead stop. The impact? Network routing technology that allowed for the instant evaluation of each light photon, and instant determination of destination and origin. The result was an immeasurable and staggering increase in broadband speed; so much so that "yottabit-to-the-home" became the new, established buzzword for the world of telecom.
Claude.AI: Light Stopped in Tracks (Network Technology). Grade: Didn't Happen. Analysis: While network speeds have increased dramatically, the described light-stopping technology hasn't materialized. However, quantum computing and quantum networks have made significant advances in data processing and transmission.
- 2030: Moderately Likely (60%)
- Quantum networking emerging
- Traditional internet still dominant
- 2035: Likely (80%)
- Advanced networking standard
- Quantum internet emerging
#23 - Domain names disappeared. Instead, people now purchase individual light spectrums (or wavelengths) for personal and business use. It was no longer necessary to have a cumbersome bit of software to figure out how to route yourself to global knowledge. Instead, with your bank of light spectrum (of which there is an infinite number), people invite you to visit their personal information spaces, holographic memory decks, and visual worlds by linking to their particular spectrum. Light-on!
Claude.AI: Disappearance of Domain Names. Grade: Didn't Happen. Analysis: Domain names remain central to internet infrastructure. While alternatives like QR codes and apps have provided new ways to access information, the fundamental domain name system continues to function as the internet's addressing system.
2030 and 2035: "This prediction about domain names disappearing and being replaced by light spectrum addressing seems quite unlikely even in a 10-year timeframe. The fundamental architecture of the internet relies heavily on the Domain Name System (DNS), and while we might see new addressing schemes emerge (like what we're seeing with blockchain domains or IoT addressing), a complete replacement with light spectrum-based addressing faces both technical and practical challenges. The infrastructure cost and complexity of such a change would be enormous, and there would need to be compelling advantages over the current system to justify such a dramatic shift."
#24 - Apple is delisted. Once one of the world's most innovative, cash-rich, highly valued companies, Apple enters a new phase in 2025 when it is delisted from most global stock markets. Why? Most industry leaders never survive; there is always someone with a better idea. It's the age-old world of business.
Claude.AI: Apple Delisting Grade: Didn't Happen. Analysis: Far from being delisted, Apple has maintained its position as one of the world's most valuable companies, though with increased competition in various sectors. The company has continued to innovate in areas like AR/VR and services.
2030:
- Most Likely (80%): Dominant tech leader, growing stronger
- Less Likely but Possible (20%): Major disruption causes value decline
2035:
- Most Likely (70%): Transformed but still market leader
- Less Likely but Possible (30%): Restructured but remains public company
#25 - Jim Carroll shoots his age! In golf. His friends and family thrill at the moment!
Claude.AI: Jim Carroll Shooting His Age in Golf Grade: Unknown. Analysis: This personal prediction cannot be verified without specific information about Jim Carroll's golfing achievements.
At this, I fed Claude my current age (65) and current handicap (16). It came back with insight!
2030 (Age 70):
- Most Likely (60%): Missing by 5-8 strokes
- Less Likely but Possible (25%): Shoots 70 on good day
2035 (Age 75):
- Most Likely (70%): Regular scores near 75-78
- Less Likely but Possible (40%): Shoots age several times
The overall summary of Claude.AI of my 2014 predictions?
Out of 24 verifiable predictions:
- Correct: 4 (16.7%)
- Somewhat Correct: 10 (41.7%)
- Didn't Happen: 8 (33.3%)
- Ridiculous: 1 (4.2%)
- Unknown: 1 (4.2%)
"Carroll's predictions were most accurate in areas of technological advancement, particularly in healthcare, agriculture, and digital transformation. His timeline was often optimistic, predicting changes in 10 years that are still in progress today. Social and structural changes (like the end of cash or traditional education) were generally overstated, while technological predictions were more grounded in observable trends."
So what's the point of all this?
The real value in futurism isn't about getting predictions exactly right - it's about developing frameworks for thinking about what's next. When I look at those 2014 predictions now, I see the methodology that still guides my work today:
So what can you do with this type of insight?
Start with the trends you can trust - the "sure bets." Digital payments were going to increase. Healthcare was going to become more personalized. These are the foundations you build upon.
Then, layer in the wildcards - those transformative possibilities that could change everything. I wrote about stopping light in its tracks for network routing. Ambitious? Absolutely. But without considering these potential breakthroughs, we limit our thinking about what's possible.
Finally, consider the human element. Some of my predictions about social and structural changes have taken longer than expected. That's because transforming human behavior and institutions is infinitely more complex than advancing technology.
What fascinates me most is seeing how some trends I spotted early - like personal health monitoring and smart agriculture - have indeed become major forces, even if they've evolved differently than I envisioned. That's the nature of future thinking: you identify the direction of change, even if the exact path takes some unexpected turns.
The greatest value of exercises like my 2025 predictions isn't in their accuracy - it's in how they train us to think about:
- the accelerating pace of change
- how trends interconnect and influence each other
- the delicate balance between technological and social evolution
- the art of extrapolating current developments into future scenarios
As I always tell my clients: The future isn't something that happens to us. It's something we create through the decisions we make today. Understanding how to think about tomorrow helps us make better choices today.
The key isn't to predict the future perfectly - sometimes, it's just about being bold enough to try to predict it!
Futurist Jim Carroll has nailed many trends and failed with other trends, but at least he gets people thinking about tomorrow!