"Beware the dangerous illusion of invincibility!" - Futurist Jim Carroll
Futurist Jim Carroll is writing a series, “25 Things I’ve Learned That Will Carry Me Into 2025.” He is putting this together based on his 30-year career as a futurist, trends, and innovation expert, advising leaders of some of the world’s most prestigious organizations on how to align to a faster future. He intends for the series to provide valuable guidance to others eager to learn how to move through a year that promises to be volatile, unpredictable, and full of uncertainty. Each day, the post goes out out on multiple mailing lists, social media networks, and to the Website https://2025inspiration.jimcarroll.com
You are invincible - until you're not!
That's probably one of the most important observations I've made in my career, and I continue to see it to this day. I've come to believe that it will probably be one of the most prevalent attitudes going into 2025, particularly with those who are far too giddy with their recent run of success. Here's what I know - invincible often precedes an inevitable fall from grace.
It''s a truth, though, that it's easy for people to assume too much when they've had too much success - that everything is guaranteed, the future is a slam dunk, and that the road forward is an easy one. Nothing could be further from the truth. A feeling of invincibility is usually one of the most forthcoming signs of the emergence of an impending turnaround in fortune. The fact is, success can breed failure.
Over the years, I've had numerous observations in my posts about the danger of believing you are invincible. "Invincibility is a myth". "Invincibility? It's a gateway drug to potential failure!". "A belief that your success is guaranteed, that you are immune to disruption, and that what worked for you in the past will continue working for you in the future : these FICTIONS are HARMFUL!"
And my favourite: "The only answer to your belief that you are invincible? LOL!"
I've long observed a dangerous pattern that emerges when organizations and individuals achieve success and slide into invincibility Here's what I know.
- invincibility doesn't exist. Let me be direct: no matter how successful you've been, no matter how many victories you've achieved, invincibility simply doesn't exist. In my work, I've witnessed how this dangerous mindset can transform market leaders into cautionary tales; I've seen individuals achieve success and believe that it is guaranteed going forward. The moment you believe you're invincible is precisely when you become most vulnerable.
- invincibility is a gateway to failure. Think of feeling invincible as what I call a "gateway drug to potential failure." Throughout my career, I've seen this pattern repeat itself: success breeds confidence, confidence evolves into overconfidence, and overconfidence opens the door to devastating failures. It's a progression that's both predictable and preventable.
- it leads to a false sense of security. The mindset of invincibility creates an illusion of control that's particularly dangerous in our rapidly changing world. It's like wearing a blindfold while walking through a minefield – you might feel safe, but reality tells a different story.
- it feeds into complacency which leads to a lack of vigilance. In my keynotes, I often share examples of organizations that fell from grace not because they faced insurmountable challenges, but because success made them complacent. When you feel invincible, you stop scanning the horizon for threats. You stop innovating. You stop evolving. You become an easy target through inaction.
- it provides for a blindness to reality. The invincibility mindset acts like a pair of rose-colored glasses that distorts your view of the world. I've seen successful companies completely miss transformative market shifts because they were too busy basking in their past achievements to notice the ground shifting beneath their feet.
- it gives you a false diet of arrogance and hubris. Let me tell you about a pattern I've witnessed repeatedly: success breeds arrogance, and arrogance breeds failure. The "we're too big to fail" mentality has preceded some of the most spectacular corporate collapses I've studied. Humility isn't just a virtue – it's a survival skill.
- it causes a failure to adapt. One of the most dangerous fictions in business is the belief that past success guarantees future success. In my work as a futurist, I've seen how this mindset, born from feeling invincible, creates a rigid inability to adapt to change. Yesterday's winning formula can quickly become tomorrow's recipe for disaster.
- it leads to underestimation of risk. The invincibility mindset creates what I call "risk blindness." When you feel untouchable, you stop seeing risks as real threats. Instead, they become abstract concepts that happen to "other people." This mindset can lead to reckless decisions that put everything at risk.
- it increases vulnerability to unforeseen consequences. Here's a truth I've learned: the more invincible you feel, the less prepared you are for unexpected challenges. In my strategic planning sessions, I often encounter organizations that have no Plan B because they never thought they'd need one. Plan A worked and will also work! That's a dangerous place to be in our unpredictable world.
- it establishes a path to the inevitability of failure. Let me share something I emphasize in every keynote: failure is always possible, no matter how successful you are today. The key isn't to avoid failure altogether – that's impossible. The key is to remain humble enough to see it coming and agile enough to respond when it arrives.
Going into 2025, the reality is this: in today's rapidly changing world, feeling invincible isn't just dangerous – it's potentially fatal to your future success. The most resilient organizations and individuals I've encountered maintain a healthy sense of vulnerability. They understand that success is never permanent and that tomorrow's challenges require constant vigilance, adaptability, and humility.
Remember: the moment you think you're invincible is the moment you become most vulnerable. Keep your guard up, stay humble, and never stop preparing for tomorrow's challenges.
After all, in a world of constant change, the only real security comes from accepting our inherent vulnerability.
What steps will you take into 2025 to challenge your own sense of invincibility?
Futurist Jim Carroll was invincible at one moment in time. Then, he was not. Lesson learned.