"Our new reality? Irrational certainty now undermines almost every rational trend!" - Futurist Jim Carroll
So, how do you take on the unique times in which we find ourselves?
How do you carefully take on what is still, weirdly, a significant future trend that could, to some, be controversial? Carefully! How do you approach a delicate topic with appropriate delicacy at a time when delicacy is demanded? With delicacy!
A time in which science is fake, reality is false, and falsehoods are reality?
Well, you simply acknowledge that 'the future is now, well, just weird.'
That's how I took on the topic the other day, introducing an entirely new section to my slide deck.
Let's start here - I'm back explaining that in our global economy, we now clearly have the Jetsons meeting the Flintstones once again! For a time, I shied away from this reality, but I can't anymore. You'll see why.
And the fact is, they are kind of freaked out at each other.
One has a solid vision of tomorrow; the other is adamant that progress is bad, the future should slow down, science is fake, and maybe the 1950s were the era in which things were great (again.)
So with that intro, I spoke to the audience about a topic I wrote about here a few weeks ago - the arrival of what I call "confident stupidity." I brought in slides from the PDF I created directly into the presentation. You can go back and read the post here - it might be a good refresher on the insanity in which we find ourselves today.
Directly from my PDF:
What is "Confident Stupidity"?
It's not about intelligence. "Confident stupidity" describes people who strongly reject expert knowledge on important topics like science, technology, and health – even when the evidence is overwhelming. This isn't honest questioning or healthy skepticism. It's the confident dismissal of proven facts in favor of appealing but false alternatives.
Climate Change: Rejecting decades of climate science despite 99% expert agreement.
Vaccines: Dismissing medical consensus on vaccine safety and effectiveness.
Technology: Claiming proven innovations like solar power and EVs are "failures"
I then shared this screenshot with the audience, as an example of where we find ourselves today. Given that I was speaking to an energy/utility conference, my example had to do with that industry. This is but one of countless numbers of irrational things I see online.
Let me explain what's going on here. At the center of it is a post by a fellow named John Lee Pettimore. Astute music fans will recognize that name as the main character in the song Copperhead Road by Steve Earle.
Oh. Maybe that's a clue.
Anyways, he posted that we would never be able to integrate a lot of solar energy into the grid because, well, it would take too long to mine the necessary materials. He stated this with a degree of confident certainty that is common to such posts.
John Lee Pettimore: The U.S. generates over 4 million gigawatts of electricity annually. Solar panels with a 1 GW capacity require about 18.5 tons of silver, 3,380 tons of polysilicon, and 10,252 tons of aluminum. This equates to 74,000,000 tons of silver, 13,520,000,000 tons of polysilicon, and 41,008,000,000 tons of aluminum. At the current silver mining rate of 26,000 tons per year, it would take 2,846.15 years. In 2023, global polysilicon production was about 1.6 million tons, and aluminum production was 72.76 million tons annually. In theory, Elon Musk is correct, but in reality, it’s impossible. I hope this puts to rest Elons theory that we could power the us with solar.
Someone responded, though, that he cou;dn't do simple math.
This led to the observation that his math was off by a factor of 1,752x - and instead of almost 3,000 years to do the mining, it would take about 2 years. Oops! Bottom line? The corrected calculations reveal the goal is achievable. Pettimore’s "impossible" claim was baseless.
Here's the thing - the fellow seems to have a bit of an agenda. Read his short bio:
John Lee Pettimore: As a miner for 40 years, I have worked in various mines around the world. Gold, platinum, copper, coal, lead, zinc, oil and salt. I'm going to tell you something, and here it is. We will destroy the earth in the name of "Green Energy." Follow along, and I will explain.
Here's the problem in a nutshell - the fellow has thousands of followers.
And so what we all know we have in play today in the world is all of this confident stupidity - people boasting baseless, false, misleading, or simply incorrect information which all kinds of other people consume and take to heart and which ... leads to irrational belief coming to dominate belief.
After all, who cares about simple math?
Here's the problem - it has a very real impact. With that, I observed that the US just saw the cancellation of one of the largest solar energy projects in North America, as the determined, confident stupidity comes to dominate trend decisions, politics, and investments.
In the meantime, elsewhere in the world, we have nations and people following reality, aka science, and making decisions such as the UAE building the world's largest renewable energy project.
What's the impact? From my slide:
Real-World Impact: Three Major Examples.
This phenomenon is actively harming innovation and progress across critical industries:
1 Solar Energy "Failure": Despite solar becoming the cheapest electricity source globally, false narratives claim it's unreliable and expensive. This slows adoption and investment.
2 Healthcare "Fraud": COVID-19 misinformation damaged trust in public health, leading to preventable deaths and reduced vaccine uptake worldwide.
3 Electric Vehicle "Bust": While EV sales hit record highs with 94% owner satisfaction, persistent myths about range and reliability slow market adoption.
Multiply this situation by millions of posts and billions of readers, and we find ourselves where we are today.
Remember when I wrote about "America's Retreat" some weeks ago? Read it again. Well, it's very real because they are allowing confident stupidity and irrational thinking to dominate complex realities.
And that's how I led the audience into the fact that the future has become, well, just weird!
How did I pivot from that section? By flipping back to this thing called reality - with more about that to come in subsequent posts.
Futurist Jim Carroll still believes that math and science are real things.