"Many people bought a car. Not an ideology." - Futurist Jim Carroll
It's an "interesting" time to own a Tesla.
That's probably an understatement.
I've said before that it is becoming increasingly difficult to be someone who speaks and writes about the future when so much of the future has become massively volatile and wildly unpredictable. It becomes even more difficult when you find yourself caught up in a hot mess that you didn't anticipate or wish for.
Today's image is from the day I drove my Model 3 for the first time when I purchased it just under 4 years ago. I was thrilled to finally have the vehicle that I spoke about on the stage for years. A brand and vehicle that was indicative of bold thinking, radical design, massive connectivity, and eco-friendliness. It was a revolutionary project, redefining the future of one of the world's biggest industries. The founder was a true visionary, someone willing to shatter the norms in pursuit of a better future.
Today, to be honest, it's a bit difficult to drive around in it.
I feel like I'm being branded with something that I did not subscribe to.
All the stuff I just wrote above? It seems somewhat like a cruel joke.
A better future? I'm Canadian.
For years, I've observed that a brand today can go from hero to zero overnight.
Yup.
Have you seen how people are responding? Do a quick search and you'll find dozens if not hundreds of bumper stickers, license plate frames, and other accouterments by which people share their disgust, weariness, frustration, and disappointment.
I might be compelled to get one, in that I've already had a few people give me the finger while I'm driving.
If you see someone with something like this, give them a wave - be nice to them! As I said, we bought a car, not an ideology. Many Tesla owners I have spoken to are considering selling the car and moving into something that doesn't make a statement but simply does what it is supposed to do.
I consider this course of action regularly. Do I stay or do I go now? It's a dilemma. I stil love the car ; the brand and owner not so much.
Many are responding with their wallet.
The European market - traditionally a stronghold for Tesla - is showing us the power of consumer values in action as people associate the brand with a rapid hero-to-zero transition. We're seeing unprecedented declines: 63% in France, 59% in Germany, 38% in Norway, and similar dramatic drops across other key markets, culminating in a 10%+ European decline in 2024.
This isn't just a market correction - it's a fundamental realignment of consumer values with purchase decisions.
The ripple effects are global. For the first time in over a decade, Tesla's worldwide deliveries dropped 1% compared to 2023, with a concerning 4.8% decline in Q2 2024. The U.S. market tells an equally compelling story - a 5.6% overall decline, with California, the epicenter of EV adoption, showing a 12% drop and Model 3 sales plunging 36%.
What's driving this transformation? It's a perfect convergence of multiple disruption vectors:
- The leadership-brand nexus: We're seeing a textbook example of how executive personal brands can impact corporate performance. The CEO's political activism and social media presence have created a new dynamic in consumer decision-making, particularly affecting business customers and traditionally strong markets.
- a lack of innovation. The fact is, while Tesla was once a domineering leader, it now seems to be wallowing. The product lineup hasn't kept pace with the exponential rate of market evolution. While competitors are rapidly iterating, Tesla's core offerings remain centered on the Model 3 and Model Y.
- competitive acceleration: The market is experiencing a classic disruption pattern where early movers face intense competition from both agile startups (particularly Chinese manufacturers like BYD) and traditional players who've completed their digital transformation (Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, etc.).
- market maturation: We're seeing a natural evolution in the EV market, with the end of subsidies in several European markets leading to a recalibration of demand patterns and a shift toward hybrid technologies.
The biggest thing though? The brand is souring. It's becoming a zero for many. The question isn't just about electric vehicles anymore - it's about how brand values align with consumer expectations - or, in this case, don't.
The lesson for future-focused leaders? In the digital age, brand equity is increasingly tied to leadership behavior, and the speed of market response to misalignment is accelerating. We're not just watching a sales decline - we're witnessing a real-time case study in the new rules of market dynamics in our hyperconnected world.
Of course, this isn't just my opinion The Telegraph yesterday had an article that got right to the point of what's happening. Dozens of others are pointing out the same thing. A distracted leader is a failed leader.
No businessman has ever wielded as much political power as Elon Musk and he hasn’t had to get elected, or even be approved by Congress.
But while Musk’s Doge team rips through the Washington swamp, uncovering waste and corruption, he should perhaps be paying attention to business closer to home.
Tesla is in trouble.
Sales have crashed 50pc in Europe compared to last January. In China, its largest market, sales fell 11.5pc in January. The share price has been dragged down 22pc from its post-election peak in December.
Elon Musk's golden goose is in trouble
Telegraph, February 10, 2025
Some leaders do well in the future after a bold start. Others don't
Some companies have done just fine when the visionary founder departs: Apple has seen its value increase tenfold since the death of Steve Jobs in 2011.
However, it should also be noted that it launched only two major hits – the watch and earphones – in that time and is now run by an uninspiring operations guy. With Apple’s China business now struggling, its best days may be behind it.
Cars are rather different of course. Today Musk is Tesla’s greatest asset. But his erratic leadership is also its greatest liability.
Elon Musk's golden goose is in trouble
Telegraph, February 10, 2025
A brand today can go from hero to zero in a matter of months.
Tesla's best days might very well be behind it - and its customers, once its most loyal fans. are sadly very aware of it.
Futurist Jim Carroll predicted the Tesla business model in 2006.