"Contradictory uncertainty is your new normal!" - Futurist Jim Carroll
It's a balancing act - trying to figure out tomorrow!
After all, to study the future today is to try to understand a story of contradictions.
Case in point from two posts that I saw back-to-back just yesterday. First, solar energy is soon to be the cheapest sort of energy in most places around the world, according to one publication. This tracks with all the research I see that crosses my desk regularly.
Right next to that came a post that suggested that at the same time, a good part of the investment world has completely soured on the concept of solar and renewables, and in fact, has gone negative on most anything having to do with alternative energy sources and a new energy grid.
These types of contradictions surround us.
We have a man who undeniably has done wondrous work in accelerating electric vehicle technology, battery storage technology, and solar energy, aligning himself with a guy who thinks that they are a foolhardy thing. It makes no sense, other than to think it is madness. I was around when Howard Hughes lost himself inside of his mind, and think the same thing is happening.
That's but one example. We have a non-stop increase in the number of EVs on the road, at the same time that oil demand continues to soar. Many people demand to continue to be allowed to work at home while at the same time, companies are making significant investments in office space. There is an increasing awareness throughout society of the importance of actions that lead to better health outcomes, at the same time that ultra-processed food consumption continues to grow at a furious pace. We witness climate pledges by organizations who promise to be good stewards of the environment, at the same time that they decide to invest in small nuclear to support the growing energy demands of AI. Throughout the Western world, we see an awareness of the risk of real climate change at the same time that we see a continued boom in the sale of gas-guzzling SUVs.
The list of contradictions goes on.
It seems people want their future but want their past too.
It's odd, this.
To deal with the future, you have to acknowledge the contradictory complexity it represents. Contradictions come about with the competing priorities of short-term profits vs. long-term realities. To understand the future is to understand the volatility that comes with the short term while the long-term realities are inevitable.
At a time when nothing much makes sense, you've got to double down in your sense-making department! I long ago learned that you've got to pay attention to the underlying technological, demographic, scientific, or other undeniable trend that is underneath any particular macro trend. I've come to understand that it's critical to pay attention to the long-term realities, not the short-term volatility.
And in these days of even crazier contradictory realities, I've come to work harder to tune out the noise, to focus on what the future is telling us about the future - not what the often crazy 'wisdom of the crowd' is trying to tell us.
That's the only way to not let the contradictions drive you mad!
Thanks once again to MidJourney for generating such a wonderful image based on today's inspiration!
Futurist Jim Carroll works hard to avoid the confusion that can often come from being a futurist in today’s world.