"The smartest strategy in a downturn? Say no to the narrative!" - Futurist Jim Carroll
If you've been following me, you know that the series I am writing here - Leading in Uncertainty - is becoming a book, Dancing in the Rain. I know I've shared the material below before in one or two of my Daily Inspiration posts - but I'm writing it here into the series as this will likely become Chapter 1 in the book. After this, I've got two more posts to go, before I return to my regular Daily Inspiration posts!
Your growth story begins the moment you decide not to take part in someone else’s pessimism.
An economic downturn? Just refuse to participate! In an era of panic, the boldest act is to opt out of the fear. The future doesn’t belong to the cautious—it belongs to the courageous.
With that thought in mind, know this - winners don’t wait. They create. Recessions don’t kill opportunity. Mindsets do. The companies that shape tomorrow are the ones inventing it today—despite the headlines. That's why the smartest strategy is to 'just say no' to the narrative. After all, if everyone’s playing defense, the game is yours to win on offense. The path to growth starts with rejecting the crowd’s caution!
You can't shrink your way to tomorrow. The organizations that pull back on the initiative to move forward will stay back. Those that move forward now are the ones we’ll be talking about tomorrow. That being the case, mindset is the first move. A downturn is a test of belief.
That's why one of the first things you can do is to dance in the rain. Make the best of a bad situation. Do what you can do despite trying circumstances. Stay focused on your goals despite the fuzziness that surrounds you.
Opting out.
To opt out is to choose not to participate in something.
Right now, the conventional wisdom – the wisdom of crowds – always seems to be that in a period of economic uncertainty or a downturn, the best thing to do is to hunker down, scale back, slow down, take it easy, be cautious, reduce spending, defer our actions, wait it out, take things slow, put things on pause.
And that is just plain, well, the wrong thing to do! History tells us so – because those who choose to opt out of conventional wisdom are those who win.
In recent years, we've seen what happens when some choose not to participate in a recession, economic downturn, or whatever we want to call a period of economic uncertainty. They have determined that it's important to focus on the long-term goal, not the short-term volatility.
What we know from previous downturns is this: those who chose to opt out experienced growth during the downturn that others did not see. Not only that, but their rate of growth after the downturn was greater than those who chose the traditional path of cutting back. Bottom line: long-term winners are those who chose not to participate in a downturn!
It seems simple but is pretty critical – when uncertainty stares you in the face, double down on innovation and transformation, and refocus on the long-term view!
For example, here are two key things we learned from the 2008-09 global economic meltdown.
- first, ‘winners’ grew at a 17% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) during the downturn compared to 0% among the ‘losers.’
- second, those ‘winners’ locked in gains of 13% CAGR in the years after the downturn compared to the ‘losers’ stalling at 1%.
In other words, by opting out of the common narrative – ‘it’s a recession, cut back, hunker down and make sure you ride it out – and by choosing instead to go into the future full throttle, the 'winners' emerged much better positioned for that future.
It’s a powerful lesson.
The story continued beyond that recession. A Grant Thornton survey in 2021, when some economic clouds were floating about, found that 50% of major organizations planned to double down on innovation if there was to be a downturn They didn’t intend to just retrench and try to ride it out; most were counting on continued investment in technology and innovation to push them through.
As the study notes:
“Most companies believe a recession is coming, and the key is to plan now – then invest in, innovate and execute on the core business during the downturn, which will position companies that do to dominate the recovery. Companies that approach a recession with the discipline to control expenses and manage cash, but with a matching vision to align ongoing investment with strategy and opportunity, can win the downturn rather than merely surviving it.”
This is a real mindset shift from conventional wisdom. What were the differentiators identified in the study?
Those who fail to thrive in a downturn do these things:
- they perform heavy cost-cutting
- they scale back of R\&D
- they see a lot of quality talent lost due to cutbacks
- they stray out of their core business to try to find a path forward
- they take a wait-and-see approach
Those who achieve significant CAGR despite a downturn do these things:
- played on the offensive but selectively
- they accelerated R\&D spend
- they focused sales efforts on top customers
- they maintained or boosted marketing
- they focused on digital customer experience
So what do you do?
Refuse to participate in the fear. Choose strategic investment over reckless retreat. Reignite your innovation engine. Rethink your markets, your offerings, and your talent. Focus on transformation while others are stuck in survival.
Remember: economic volatility is temporary, but growth decisions are permanent.
Opt out of the recession - and into the future.
Futurist Jim Carroll has chosen not to participate in the common narrative of 2025.